StrategyMountain Pacific Group offers a systemic approach to active commodity management. The approach is unique in identifying imbalances in risk, rather than forecasting returns. Intermittent supply/demand imbalances are identified using statistical pricing modeling. Further value is added by a Dynamic Risk Management model (“DRM”) which maximizes the capture of signals, incorporating reversionary forces within markets. Judgment and fundamental inputs are only employed in trade implementation. Our active commodity management process was designed to best harvest inefficiencies in the pricing of commodity markets. It is a systematic, quantitative process with strong risk control designed for institutional investors. Given the focus on estimating risk asymmetry, rather than making fundamental or technical return forecasts, it is a low risk complement to these other styles. We use quantitative analysis of price history to identify those environments where there is asymmetry in risk. Half the time these statistical signals are directionally wrong, however losses are smaller than gains. Losses are limited by the risk asymmetry, i.e. difference between upside and downside volatility, and the very low correlation between different commodity returns. Additionally a money management model cuts looses and scales into profitable trades for each commodity position. |






